Thursday, September 18, 2008

How Bad Is This Financial Mess?

I'm not an economist, and therefore no expert regarding this serious mess in the economy, but here's a little clue that's pretty easy to get a handle on.

T-bills are issued by the government and give a specific return on your investment. They are considered safe because they're issued by the U.S. of A.. The interest you get on those bills is based on the demand for them; if more people want them, you get less interest. In troubled times people load up on T-bills because they're safe. People know they won't lose their investment - their money - even if the return is small.

In 1940, at the end of the Great Depression and as the world was in the first chaotic and frightening throes of World War II, people got very scared and searched for safe financial havens. They began to buy T-bills. So many people wanted them that the interest rate got lower and lower until it actually got into negative territory, which meant that when the bill matured they would get LESS money than they put into it. Every other haven for their money was even scarier and could lose even more. That was the only time in our history that T-bills had negative interest...

Until today. This morning 3 month T-bills moved into negative territory for the first time since 1940. They have since moved back into positive interest, but that should give you an idea just where we are.

Depression and World War II = today. It really is that bad, folks.

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